Altcoin market analysis: Iran conflict as the starting signal for a new rally?

In the top 10 altcoins, all ten have a course plus. In particular, the weekly winner Monero (XMR) started his comeback attempt among the top 10 altcoins with a price jump of a good 17 percentage points. The winners of the previous week, Bitcoin SV (BSV) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH), were also convincing this week with 15 and 9 percent price increases. The underperformers of the week are Ripple (XRP) with a price drop of just three percent and Stellar (XLM) with a price premium of just under two percent.

Best course development among the top 10 altcoins: Monero (XMR)

Course analysis based on the pair of values XMR / USDT on Bitfinex

After months of absence, Altcoin Monero, who specializes in anonymous payments, makes the leap back into the top 10. It is noteworthy that the price jump on January 3 was accompanied by very strong volume. On the one hand, it is striking that the price increase also correlates with new political tensions between the USA and Iran. The last time that the price increase at XMR was accompanied by such a jump in trading volume was around 2 years ago. In November 2017, this increase in volume was followed by the strongest price increase at Monero by more than 300 percent. Due to its strong weekly increase to currently $ 55.75, the XMR price managed to break out of the red downtrend line and can thus generate a new buy signal. Starting from the recent low of around $ 44, the Monero rate recovered by more than 25 percent.

Due to this positive price development, the exponential moving average of the last 10 days has crossed out the exponential moving average of the last 20 days from below and generated a new buy signal. If XMR manages to leave the $ 54 behind, the price targets are the blue horizontal resistance at $ 57.32 and the orange resistance range at $ 62, where the exponential moving average of the past 200 days (blue) runs. Crossing this zone activates the short-term maximum goal at $ 66.63. As mid-term price targets with continued strength in the coming period, the 50s Fibonacci retracement is at $ 82.55 and above that the red resistance area at around $ 92.

However, if the current bullish movement is only corrective and the price falls below the red downtrend line, the exponential moving average of the past 200 days (red) at $ 48.70 is a very important support for the bulls. At the close of the day, if the price falls below the exponential moving average of the past 20 days, the breakout is considered a false breakout and a retest of the low at $ 44.05 is likely. A run-up to the low of $ 38.50 in December 2018 should also be planned.

Indicators: RSI and MACD indicators with a fresh buy signal in the daily chart

With the strong price jump, the RSI was able to skip the value of 55 and form a fresh buy signal. The RSI currently stands at 65 and points steeply north. The MACD also formed a buy signal on January 3, which further strengthens the bullish thought. On a weekly basis, the indicators are turning north again and could generate bullish signals in the coming week.

Worst exchange rate development among the top 10 altcoins: Stellar (XLM)

, Altcoin market analysis: Iran conflict as the starting signal for a new rally?, Criptomonedas e ICOs, Criptomonedas e ICOs

Course analysis based on the pair of values XLM / USD on Poloniex

The weakest altcoin in the top 10 is Stellar this week. Even if XLM was able to generate a small price increase itself, Stellar only rises below average in comparison. On the positive side, however, it can be seen that Stellar has not reached a new low and has also risen back above the $ 0.047. The price is currently trying the daily super trend at $ 0.049. Above this resistance, the price target is initially to be found at $ 0.051, the low from September 2019. If the bulls are able to cross this price mark, the maximum target of this corrective move is activated at $ 0.058. The orange resistance area and the upper edge of the blue downtrend channel run in this area. Only when buyers overcome this cross resistance on a daily basis are higher price targets at $ 0.072 and $ 0.087 realistic.

On the other hand, if the Stellar price bounces off the $ 0.049 range, initial support at $ 0.047 is a possible target. If this level breaks and XLM’s price falls below the exponential moving average of the last 20 days, the low is likely to restart at $ 0.043. Possible targets for the bears would then be $ 0.039 and $ 0.037. Deeper goals are not in sight for the time being and are currently unlikely.

Indicators: RSI shortly before buy signal, MACD already bullish

On a daily basis, the RSI is currently trading at 54 and is therefore close to generating a buy signal with a break of 55. On a weekly basis, however, both indicators remain in the bearish area. However, a bullish divergence can be seen in the RSI, which also tends to speak for further rising prices.

Stability of the top 10

In a weekly comparison, the price development for the top 10 altcoins looks quite positive. With the exception of Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM), all major altcoin projects show a course plus. The ranking of the top 10 altcoins is also changing this week. Monero rises from 12th place to 10th place and displaces XLM to 11th place.

Winner and loser of the week

The majority of the top 100 altcoins show a positive price trend at the start of the year. Almost two thirds of the 100 largest altcoins can generate a course plus this week. The weekly winner Swipe (SXP) gained over 32 percentage points. The RIF Token (RIF), the NEXO Coin (NEXO) and the payment currency Dash (DASH) also convince with a price increase of more than 20 percent. The loser of the week TomoChain (TOMO) continues to expand its losses as in the previous week and is again down 17 percent. The crypto project Waves (WAVES) also shows a price slide of almost 15 percentage points. Overall, however, the situation with the top 100 altcoins is positive. The sales movements are becoming increasingly smaller, which suggests that the altcoins are bottoming out. The extent to which this trend towards a sustainable bullish reversal can expand will have to be closely monitored in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer: The price estimates shown on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an analyst’s assessment.

The chart images were created using Trading View created.

USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.90 euros.

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